Too early to count NDP out of election, says prof
Credit to Author: Jennifer Saltman| Date: Thu, 05 Sep 2019 00:17:16 +0000
Support for the federal New Democrats may be slipping and the party is lagging when it comes to nominating candidates for this fall’s election, but it’s too early to write the party off, according to an expert.
“You might be concerned, but is it time to bury them and put them in their grave? No, I don’t think that’s the case at all,” said Simon Fraser University associate professor of political science Steven Weldon.
“We have a long way to go before the election, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens. It’ll be one of the more interesting elections in Canada in several years.”
Recent polls, including one from Angus Reid last week, put the NDP’s support nationally at around 14 per cent, and show that almost half of those who voted for the party in 2015 have changed their mind or are undecided.
Part of the problem when it comes to vote share is that many Canadians see the Liberals as a solid centre-left option, particularly on social issues, Weldon said.
The Greens are also having a moment — not only in Canada, but across Europe — and competing with the NDP for the many of the same voters.
“The Greens are definitely a threat. The Greens and the NDP kind of compete in traditional policy space,” Weldon said. “I think that there are a lot of voters who sit on the left that debate between the two parties.”
Polls suggest the Greens could win at least five seats, and B.C., which has already elected two Green MPs, could be fertile ground.
Weldon said social democratic parties around the world are also feeling the pain of declining voter support.
“It’s not just the NDP that’s had some real struggles,” he said.
Across Canada, particularly in the east and north, the party has been slow to nominate candidates. The party had 157 candidates nominated as of Sept. 4, including leader and Burnaby South MP Jagmeet Singh, according to its website. There are 338 seats in the House of Commons.
The NDP is lagging behind other parties when it comes to nominating candidates in B.C. Thus far, it has 30 confirmed candidates in a province with 42 ridings. The majority of its empty ridings are in the Lower Mainland, and include two in Vancouver, two in Richmond, one on the North Shore, one north of the Fraser, and three in the Fraser Valley.
Weldon was a bit surprised that some of the more urban ridings were still vacant, but he doesn’t think it is a big deal at this point.
“It’s not particularly important that they don’t have a full set of candidates at this time,” Weldon aid. “Parties in Canada are very leader-centric, and so I’m sure at the end of the day they will have candidates in all serious ridings, if not every riding.”
The NDP has pledged to have a diverse slate of candidates, and that may be contributing to the length of time it’s taking to find the right people.
“If the result of waiting is a more diverse and more serious set of candidates, then I think they would consider that a win or a good thing,” said Weldon.
A spokesperson for the federal New Democrats did not respond to an interview request.
The Liberal Party has 37 confirmed candidates in B.C. Two vacancies are in Metro Vancouver (Vancouver East and Burnaby South), one on Vancouver Island, and two in the Interior and north.
The Greens have 39 candidates, with two of their three empty ridings in Surrey (Surrey Centre and Surrey-Newton). The People’s Party of Canada also has 39 candidates, with its empty ridings spread between Metro Vancouver, the Interior and Vancouver Island.
The Conservative Party of Canada is the only party that has a full roster of candidates nominated in B.C.