Credit to Author: Zachary Shahan| Date: Fri, 01 Jan 2021 12:03:21 +0000
Published on January 1st, 2021 | by Zachary Shahan
January 1st, 2021 by Zachary Shahan
Update: Tesla has released official delivery and production data. See: New Tesla Records: 499,550 Vehicles Delivered in 2020, 509,737 Vehicles Produced (Charts). However, the article below includes extra commentary and estimates on regional sales differences and model-specific sales.
“Troy Teslike” obsessively tracks Tesla registration data. He has a superb history when it comes to Tesla sales estimates (delivery estimates) at the end of each quarter. He also occasionally contributes articles for CleanTechnica and will do so much more in 2021. For now, though, he has shared his 2020 Tesla delivery estimates and I will dig into them to highlight the points that stand out to me, as well as create a couple of charts based on these figures.
Hi everybody. Here is my final Tesla delivery estimate for the quarter. I estimate,
• 183,712 for Q4 2020
• 502,692 for 2020
• 500K is now 80% likely
Google Sheet that shows 2019, 2020, & 2021:https://t.co/m8HJ36YY3J
I'd be happy with less than 3% error but we'll see. pic.twitter.com/JDUxexOVD8
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 31, 2020
As you can see, Troy estimates 502,692 global deliveries for the year as a whole. That’s just barely above Tesla’s guidance of 500,000 deliveries, and rather shockingly, it matches the forecast Tesla had in 2014 for the year 2020. #NailedIt
Digging into the regions and models is even more interesting. While the USA is still Tesla’s prime market, with 204,274 estimated deliveries in 2020, China is actually not far behind at this point, at 148,349 estimated deliveries.
Europe is in a solid third, at 98,995 estimated deliveries, while APAC (28,615) and Canada (22,459) complete the tally.
Again, all of these totals are just estimates at this point, but Troy does have a solid track record of putting out very good estimates at the end of the quarter. In fact, in a gesture of openness and rigor that is quite beyond the norm outside of academia, he also shares his past accuracy for anyone to examine.
Here is the accuracy of my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I also measure my estimate ~2 weeks into the quarter. You can find those here: https://t.co/kEWC5ll4h9 pic.twitter.com/WU8vmlOXPO
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 31, 2020
I was most curious to look at his Model Y versus Model 3 estimates in the US, since I had gleaned that ~70% of Tesla’s US sales might be the Model Y at this point. However, Troy is estimating that just 44.73% of Tesla’s US deliveries were Model Y deliveries in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, we will never get a decisive answer to this question, since Tesla reports the two models’ sales combined rather than splitting them out individually.
It’s only anecdotal experience, of course, but I will say that I seem to see new Model Ys in my area every day, and it may well be the model I see the most overall now. Just from eyeballing it, my area seems to be buying 80% or more Model Y these days. But perhaps Troy’s overall estimate for the United States is accurate and my region is abnormal or I’m just eyeballing things incorrectly. I will also get information from EVANNEX soon to see how its model-related aftermarket sales broke down in the 4th quarter.
The Model Y is not being delivered outside of North America yet. So, the Model 3 still dominates in global Tesla sales. In the 4th quarter, Troy’s estimate is that the Model 3 accounted for 128,534 sales (70% of Tesla sales globally), the Model Y 34,979 (19%), and the S & X combined 20,199 (11%).
For 2020 as a whole, the figures are: Model 3 — 360,351 (71.7%), Model Y — 84,023 (16.7%), Model S & X — 58,318 (11.6%).
Even in the US, Troy has the Model 3 edging out the Model Y in 2020 as a whole — 89,876 (44%) versus 79,072 (39%). The S & X accounted for 35,326 estimated deliveries (17%).
And this is actually where China beats the US on one figure. Troy’s estimate has the Model 3’s US delivery estimate at 89,876, as noted above, but has the China delivery estimate well above that at 139,238.
In other markets, the Model 3 dominates, but Canada does have nearly a quarter of Tesla deliveries now coming from the Model Y — according to these estimates.
Any questions? Any additional thoughts?
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Zachary Shahan is tryin’ to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director, chief editor, and CEO. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao. Zach has long-term investments in NIO [NIO], Tesla [TSLA], and Xpeng [XPEV]. But he does not offer (explicitly or implicitly) investment advice of any sort.