Raffy Tulfo overtakes Padilla in Octa’s 2028 Senate survey
MANILA, Philippines — Sen. Raffy Tulfo topped the list of potential senatorial candidates for the 2028 elections, overtaking fellow Sen. Robin Padilla, according to the latest survey by Octa Research.
In its noncommissioned “Tugon ng Masa” survey conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, the respondents were presented with a hypothetical list of potential senatorial candidates and were asked: “I have here a list of names that may run in the May 2028 elections. If the May 2028 elections will be held today, who will you likely vote for as SENATOR? You may choose up to 12 names.”
READ: Robin Padilla remains most preferred 2028 senatorial candidate – Octa
The results showed that Tulfo obtained the highest voting preference at 47 percent, followed by Padilla (45 percent), Cayetano (44 percent), and Sotto (42 percent). Octa Research noted that “the four share a rank range of first to fourth, indicating that their relative order cannot be treated as statistically fixed.”
Octa said the four candidates’ ranking ranges overlapped, meaning their relative positions could not be considered statistically fixed.
Other hypothetical senatorial bets who made it in the “Magic 12” are former Sen. Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, both at 36 percent, and Sen. Loren Legarda (31 percent), with ranks ranging from fifth to seventh and fifth to tenth, respectively.
Octa on Monday issued a revised list of the results, noting that the original list was incomplete where the name of Duterte was omitted.
They are followed by former Makati City Mayor Abby Binay (29 percent), Mark Lapid (28 percent), Senator Francis Escudero (27 percent), Education Secretary Sonny Angara and Manny Pacquiao each at 25 percent, Ben Tulfo (23 percent), and Senator Jinggoy Estrada (22 percent). The polling firm said that they remain in the preliminary top 12 amid their overlapping rank ranges.
The survey also included former Senator Koko Pimentel and Salvador Panelo (both at 20 percent), Senator Mark Villar (19 percent), and Gringo Honasan and Labor Secretary Francis Tolentino (both at 18 percent) in the broad statistical range vying for the last available slots.
READ: Duterte tops Robredo in hypothetical 2028 presidential race, says Octa
Octa Research also pointed out that Raffy took over Padilla’s slot as the hypothetical top senatorial bet from the second quarter survey held from July 4-11, 2026.
Padilla previously led the survey with 53.9 percent voting preference, followed by Raffy with 47.4 percent.
The polling firm also shared that some names were removed from the survey list upon their request, while some individuals who received less than 1 percent of the vote were omitted from the published results.
Octa cautioned that the results reflect voter preferences during the survey period and should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 elections.
The survey included face-to-face interviews among 1,200 adult respondents, with a ±3 percentage-point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level. /dp /jpv /atm
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