PAGASA may issue heat index forecasts again due to El Niño

MANILA — Weather bureau PAGASA may resume its heat index monitoring as the strong El Niño is expected to peak before the end of the year.

However, the technical working group is yet to finalize this.

“Ongoing pa rin po ‘yung sa technical working group kasi meron tayong mga chine-check pa rin sa monitoring and also ‘yung sa mga different PRSDs. So kailangan [may] consensus lahat,” Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said.

This is on top of the existing heat index issuances from some of PAGASA’s regional offices.

“‘Yung ibang PAGASA Regional Services Division ng PAGASA ay nagpapalabas na rin ng heat index forecast. Meron din naman tayo sa panahon.gov.ph.,” Solis added.

Climatologists said that the significant rainfall reduction due to El Niño will not only lead to drier conditions, but also hotter weather, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.

The heat index, or feels-like temperature, estimates how hot the human body feels when humidity is factored in.

Heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible when the heat index reaches 33 to 41 degrees Celsius, classified as the Extreme Caution level.

At 42 to 51 degrees Celsius heat index, the Danger level, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely and prolonged exposure could lead to a heat stroke.

Heat stroke becomes imminent when the heat index exceeds 52 degrees Celsius, considered as the Extreme Danger level.

The country remains in a transition period toward the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan season. PAGASA announced the end of the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat season on October 5.

The start of the Amihan season may happen in the coming days.

“Usually, ang normal onset ng Amihan ay between October 22 [and] October 30… based dun sa historical pronouncements ng onset [ng Amihan],” Solis explained.

The Northeasterly Winds that have prevailed over Extreme Northern Luzon in recent weeks originated from transient high pressure areas over China and are considered precursor of the Amihan.

State climatologists previously warned that the prevailing El Niño could result in drier and warmer Amihan season.

Despite this, temperatures in the mountainous parts of Northern Luzon could still dip to 8.4 degrees Celsius in January, during the peak of the Amihan season, according to PAGASA.

Meanwhile, the mercury in the lowlands of Mindanao could soar past 38 degrees Celsius from November to February. Similar temperatures are possible in Northern Luzon in November and January.

Rainfall is projected to decrease by at least 20 percent across many parts of the country in November, with reductions of more than 60 percent forecast from February.

PAGASA is currently monitoring Super Typhoon Rosal, which entered the Philippine area of responsibility late morning Tuesday.

It is not expected to make landfall over the Philippine landmass but may bring rains over parts of Northern Luzon on Thursday and Friday.

It may exit the PAR between late Friday and early Saturday.