El Niño Watch: Twelve areas may experience drought by end of November

MANILA — Eleven provinces and one city in southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao may experience drought by the end of November, PAGASA said Tuesday.

The weather bureau said these areas could include the following. 

• Albay
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Capiz
• Negros Oriental
• Leyte, including Tacloban City
• Samar
• Siquijor
• Southern Leyte
• City of Isabela, Basilan
• Misamis Oriental, including Cagayan de Oro City

Meanwhile, 57 areas may experience dry spells, while 11 may have dry conditions by the end of the month.

Drought occurs when rainfall is reduced by more than 60 percent (way below normal) for three consecutive months, or when rainfall decreases by at least 20 percent (below normal) for five consecutive months.

On the other hand, dry spell and dry condition refer to below normal rainfall conditions for three consecutive months and two consecutive months, respectively.

This November, way below normal precipitation is expected across Metro Manila, Northern Luzon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro, and parts of Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Bicol Region, and Palawan.

On the other hand, most of southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao may experience below normal rainfall conditions.

In terms of temperature, the mercury could soar to 38°C in the lowlands of Mindanao and past 37°C in the plains of northern and Central Luzon.

However, in the mountainous areas of Luzon, mostly in Cordillera, the temperature could dip to 13°C and below 15°C in the mountains of Mindanao.

One or two tropical cyclones may enter the Philippine area of responsibility this month.

Due to the ongoing El Niño, storms tend to form farther from the Philippines, making landfalls less likely.

However, should a tropical cyclone make landfall, it could be particularly destructive as it may reach typhoon and super typhoon intensities, after traveling over warm seas.

According to the latest advisory of PAGASA, a strong to very strong El Niño is prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is expected to peak this December and persist through the second quarter of 2027.