Sara Duterte remains top 2028 presidential bet, Baste leads as ‘alternative’ choice–WR Numero

MANILA — Vice President Sara Duterte’s preference rating for the 2028 presidential race climbed to 42.4 percent in October, despite the ongoing impeachment proceedings against her, while her brother, Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, emerged as the top alternative candidate should she be unable to run, according to a survey by WR Numero Research.

Duterte’s 42.4 percent rating was up nine percentage points from 33 percent in March, according to WR Numero Research President and CEO Robin Garcia.

Former Vice President and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo ranked a distant second with 15.9%, followed by Baste Duterte and Sen. Raffy Tulfo, who received 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively.

Sen. Robin Padilla placed fifth with 3.8%.

The October survey was conducted after months of hearings in the House of Representatives on the impeachment case against the Vice President, including the prosecution’s presentation of evidence on allegations of unexplained wealth and other accusations.

Garcia said the impeachment proceedings did not appear to have significantly affected Duterte’s preference rating, partly because relatively few respondents closely followed the hearings.

“Sixty-six percent only sometimes watch the impeachment. So viewership is quite low,” Garcia said in an interview on ANC’s Headstart. 

Only 15% of respondents said they had time to watch and actually followed the proceedings, while 12% said they had no time to watch. Another 4% said they did not understand the proceedings.

Garcia also said only 61% of respondents were aware of the impeachment proceedings.

Despite this, 56% of respondents believed Duterte should go through the impeachment process, he said, including some of her supporters.

“I think there’s just a lot of suspicion about the evidence being presented,” Garcia said.

Garcia also attributed the Vice President’s continued lead to growing identification with the Duterte political faction.

He said the proportion of respondents identifying themselves as supporters of the Duterte faction increased from 37% in June to 45% in October.

Meanwhile, those identifying with the liberal-progressive faction declined from 20% in June to 13% in October. Supporters of the Marcos faction also slightly decreased, from 18% to 16%.

Garcia said the figures suggested that the increase in Duterte’s presidential preference was accompanied by a broader expansion of her political support base.

He also pointed to the opposition’s supposed failure to consolidate its supporters and develop a compelling political narrative against the Dutertes.

“It’s not just their intentional and active cultivation of their image, which is based on strongman, effective leadership, that the Philippines supposedly lacks. But it’s also about the activities of those who oppose the Dutertes,” Garcia said.

“Are they effective? Have they figured out the right messages? Have they galvanized their support? Have they resolved their intrafactional fighting? Because even within the liberal progressives, you see splintering, you see infighting,” he added.

Garcia cited the opposition’s fragmentation during the 2022 elections, when the liberal opposition split into several groups while the Marcos-Duterte tandem united behind a single ticket.

He said political factions should learn from those experiences ahead of the 2028 elections.

The WR Numero survey also asked respondents whom they would support if their first-choice presidential candidate decided not to run or became disqualified from seeking public office.

Baste Duterte topped the second-choice list with 21.3%, followed by Tulfo and Padilla, who both received around 10%. Robredo ranked next with 9.4%.

Garcia said Baste’s second-choice rating was only about half of his sister’s first-choice preference.

“But note that that is only half, literally half, of the votes of Sara Duterte, who at this survey is at 42 percent. So Baste is 21 percent,” Garcia said.

He said the results suggested that votes for the vice president would not automatically consolidate behind her brother if she were unable to run.

“And therefore, the votes will diffuse to other potential candidates,” Garcia said.

He added that Robredo, Tulfo and Padilla could also benefit from the redistribution of votes.

Baste Duterte also topped the survey’s vice presidential preference list with 13.4%, statistically tied with Manila Mayor Isko Moreno. Sen. Bong Go followed with 11%.

Garcia said there was no clear frontrunner in the vice presidential race.

Asked whether a possible alliance between the Marcos and liberal-progressive factions could challenge Duterte in 2028, Garcia cautioned that their respective support bases could not simply be added together.

He said ideological differences and disagreements among supporters could weaken a proposed coalition.

“There are purist supporters from each of these camps who are not willing to go through that coalition-building exercise coming into 2028,” Garcia said. “And therefore, the numbers will in fact dwindle even a bit more rather than add up.”

Garcia said the presidential landscape could become more fluid if Duterte were convicted in her impeachment trial and consequently barred from holding public office.

“At least the presidential landscape will be much more fluid without Sara Duterte,” he said.

He added that political factions could become more inclined to field other candidates rather than consolidate behind a single standard-bearer.