‘Very strong El Niño’ now present in Tropical Pacific: PAGASA

MANILA — A “very strong El Niño” is present in the Tropical Pacific as of Wednesday, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The agency is set to issue a fresh El Niño Advisory.

PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Solis said most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027, and its associated impact may continue through the first half of next year.

“A very strong El Niño is now present in the Tropical Pacific as of today, based on the pre-assessment from Global Prediction Centers as well… Most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026. And its associated impact may continue through the first half of 2027,” she said.

“There will be prolonged dry spell that will lead to meteorological drought conditions and even other forms of drought such as the agricultural drought, hydrological drought. Huwag naman po mauwi sa socioeconomic drought. But there is always possibility,” Solis added.

As of October 31st, five Philippine provinces already experienced meteorological drought conditions. These are Albay, Catanduanes, Negros Oriental, Samar, and Siquijor.

“Ito po yung prolonged drought na po, ibig sabihin po around five months na po sila na may significant reduction ng rainfall of up to 60%,” Solis explained.

Eleven other provinces are experiencing dry spell and ten are experiencing dry condition.

PAGASA forecasts that all provinces in the country will experience drought by March and April next year.

Damage to agriculture is estimated at P8.57 billion.

The government has so far provided P11 billion worth of assistance to those affected by the El Niño. The bulk of that amount were for agricultural inputs and production support.

For 2026, the Department of Agriculture has nearly P62 billion allocation for programs and projects to prepare for and address the effects of El Niño. 

This will fund the construction and rehabilitation of irrigation projects, cloud seeding operations, planting materials and fertilizers, drugs and biologics for livestock and poultry, fish cages, fingerlings, and fuel assistance to farmers, truckers, and fisherfolk under UPLIFT.

But the DA is seeking additional P14.2 billion for unfunded programs and projects in 2026 and 2027.