Typhoon Cempaka to briefly enter PAR; Amihan surge to affect Luzon

MANILA — The tropical cyclone with international name Cempaka intensified into a typhoon Sunday afternoon ahead of its entry into the Philippine area of responsibility, according to PAGASA.

Cempaka may enter the PAR early Monday morning and will be assigned the local name Samuel.

However, Samuel may remain inside the PAR only briefly — for just 24 hours or less — as it will make a sharp turn northeastward near the northeastern boundary before moving away. 

As of 4 p.m. Sunday, the typhoon was located 1,600 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon.

It had maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour, with gustiness up to 150 kph, and was moving west northwestward at 20 kph. 

While the typhoon will not affect the country’s weather, a strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan is expected to prevail over most of Luzon through the middle of the week.

“In the next days, nakikita natin na mas bababa or bahagyang magiging malakas ang Amihan at posible pong makaapekto na rin ito [in] some areas of Southern Luzon, kasama na dyan ang Metro Manila,” weather forecaster Grace Castañeda-Carpio said during the weather bureau’s Sunday afternoon broadcast.

Amihan will bring cloudy skies with rains over Cagayan Valley, the eastern portion of Cordillera Administrative Region, and Aurora. 

Meanwhile, the warm and humid Easterlies from the Pacific Ocean will also bring scattered rains over the eastern parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

A Shear Line may form along the zone where Amihan and Easterlies meet and bring rains over the eastern section of Southern Luzon.

The rest of the country may continue to experience warm and humid conditions, with possible isolated rain showers or localized thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening. 

The following areas may experience danger level heat index of 42°C on Monday:

– Borongan City 

– Eastern Samar Catarman 

– Northern Samar

– Zamboanga City

State climatologists have previously explained that Amihan and other weather systems will continue to affect the country despite the presence of a very strong El Niño, more popularly known as Super El Niño, in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

However, parts of the country are already experiencing reduced rainfall. 

Albay, Catanduanes, Negros Oriental, Samar, and Siquijor have been experiencing prolonged meteorological drought. 

By the end of November, Northern Luzon and Mindoro are forecast to have rainfall deficit of up to 60 percent, considered way-below normal precipitation.

Almost the entire archipelago will have way below normal precipitation through the end of the warm and dry season. 

Cold surges may still occur during the Amihan season although not as frequent and cold as in the previous years.

Temperatures in the mountains of Cordillera may still dip to 9.2°C in January during the peak of Amihan. 

The lowest temperature thus far this 2026-2027 Amihan season of 10.6°C was recorded in La Trinidad, Benguet on November 5. The warmest so far 35.9°C in Zamboanga City on November 6.