Robredo-Tulfo tandem tops Baste-Padilla in OCTA’s hypothetical 2028 matchup

MANILA — Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo topped the tandem of Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla in a hypothetical presidential and vice presidential tandem matchup by the OCTA Research Group released Tuesday.

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem led the duo of Duterte-Padilla nationally, receiving 43 percent and 39 percent voter preference for the presidential and vice presidential contest, respectively, in OCTA’s first probe of this tandem matchup conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026.

OCTA said it polled 1,200 respondents for the non-commissioned survey and that the results served as a baseline for tracking the matchup in future survey waves.

The survey firm noted that the Robredo-Tulfo tandem led nationally “by a slight four points,” which is just above the ±3 percent margin of error. 

With 18 percent of voters undecided and the Visayas and Class D evenly split, “the results set a baseline for a contest that is still taking shape, it said.

The survey results “reflect an early-stage hypothetical vote-intention measure and should be interpreted as a snapshot of current public sentiment, not as a prediction of electoral outcomes,” it stressed.

Robredo has repeatedly said that she will not seek a national position in the 2028 national elections. 

The other politicians in the matchup have not stated their intention to run for a top position in the upcoming polls.

OCTA explained that it used the pairings because hypothetical matchups measure underlying public standing and baseline viability, such as how voters respond to these personalities and the coalitions they represent, regardless of current personal declarations. 

The results should not be read as a measure of support for actual candidacies, it said.

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem appeared to be anchored in Luzon, OCTA said, noting that they led 61 percent to 19 percent in Balance Luzon, rising to 69 percent in North Luzon, and 49 percent to 32 percent in Metro Manila, and about four in five of its voters or 80 percent live in Luzon. 

It also leads in Western Visayas (60 percent) and the Negros Island Region (62 percent), and among women (47 percent to 36 percent), urban residents (48 percent to 36 percent), voters aged 45 and above, Classes ABC (53 percent to 29 percent) and E (48 percent to 37 percent), and college-educated respondents (46 percent to 33 percent), it said.

The Duterte-Padilla coalition, meanwhile, appeared anchored in Mindanao and Central Visayas, the pollster said.

The tandem leads 81 percent to 4 percent in Mindanao, with shares of 84 percent to 90 percent in Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, CARAGA and BARMM, and 79 percent in Central Visayas, it said.

Nearly half of its voters (47 percent) live in Mindanao, but more than half live elsewhere, and Metro Manila is its secondlargest regional source of voters, it said.

It leads among men (43 percent to 39 percent), rural residents (43 percent to 36 percent), voters aged 25 to 44, respondents with no formal or elementary education (47 percent to 37 percent), and the D2 segment of Class D (45 percent to 37 percent), said OCTA.