Robredo-Tulfo tandem leads Octa’s hypothetical matchup for 2028 polls

MANILA, Philippines — Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo led a hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential matchup against Davao City Mayor Baste Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla, an Octa Research survey showed.

According to the survey, conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 43 percent of adult Filipinos said they would vote for the Robredo-Tulfo tandem.

Meanwhile, 39 percent said they would choose the Duterte-Padilla tandem, while 18 percent chose neither tandem or said they did not know.

This is the first time Octa has conducted a survey on the pairing.

“There are no earlier OCTA data on this pairing, so the figures serve as a baseline against which future survey waves can be compared,” it said.

At least 1,200 adult Filipinos nationwide were surveyed through face-to-face interviews. The survey had a ±3 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

READ: Sara Duterte, Leni Robredo gap narrows in Octa presidential survey

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem was ahead by four percentage points, just above the ±3 percent margin of error.

According to Octa, the four-point lead “is slight, and neither tandem commands majority support.”

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem posted its strongest showing in Balance Luzon, with 61 percent against 19 percent for Duterte-Padilla. Support for the tandem reached 69 percent in North Luzon and 53 percent in South Luzon, while 28 percent were uncommitted.

They also led in the National Capital Region, with 49 percent against 32 percent, while 18 percent were uncommitted.

The Duterte-Padilla tandem posted its strongest showing in Mindanao, where it received 81 percent support, compared with only 4 percent for the Robredo-Tulfo pairing.

The two tandems were closely divided in the Visayas, with 43 percent supporting Duterte-Padilla and 41 percent backing Robredo-Tulfo.

By socioeconomic class, about four in five adults in Class D were evenly split between the two pairs, with each receiving 41 percent.

“The Robredo–Tulfo tandem leads in the smaller Classes ABC and E, and within Class D the two tandems split along the D1 and D2 segments, but these gaps are modest compared with the regional and ethnolinguistic ones,” it explained.

READ: Robredo ‘definite’: Not seeking nat’l post in 2028

Octa noted that the results remained a “snapshot and baseline” and were likely to change, particularly because the Davao City mayor had not yet declared a presidential bid.

Meanwhile, Robredo reiterated on Monday that she would not seek any national post in the May 2028 elections.

“With the lead slight, the uncommitted bloc large, and the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte still unresolved, this matchup remains an early and open baseline — not a prediction of the May 2028 outcome,” Octa said. /mcm

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