UN chief warns world on track to breach 1.5°C climate target; PH braces for worsening impacts

MANILA — The world is on track to overshoot the critical 1.5-degree Celsius global warming threshold, raising the risk of more destructive extreme weather events that could further threaten vulnerable countries like the Philippines, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned.

Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the UN Climate Conference in Turkiye, Guterres said the world had failed to make sufficient progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, despite the commitments made under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“Eleven years ago in Paris, the world pledged to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. Science tells us an overshoot above that level is now inevitable,” Guterres said.

He pointed to record-high emissions in 2025 and increasingly broken temperature records, noting that the last four years were the hottest on record.

“This is the path to mutually assured destruction,” he warned.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in its 2026 Emissions Gap Report, also cautioned that the world remains on course to exceed the 1.5-degree target, underscoring the widening gap between countries’ climate commitments and the actual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

For the Philippines, one of the countries highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, breaching the threshold could mean even more severe weather extremes and worsening climate impacts on communities.

Gab Mesina of Advocates for Science and Technology for the People (AGHAM) said the effects of global warming would intensify further once the world enters an overshoot period — when global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree threshold.

“Kapag tumama na tayo sa overshoot within the following years, aasahan natin na titindi pa lalo yung nararanasan natin. Extreme weather events, yung mga slow onset events natin,” Mesina said.

This could mean stronger tropical cyclones, heavier rainfall and longer periods of extreme dryness and heat, he added.

“It will be much worse than what we’re experiencing now. We’re already seeing its effects. It’s just going to get stronger,” Mesina said.

According to UNEP, global temperatures could reach 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century.

But the report also underscores that limiting long-term warming remains possible if countries significantly accelerate emissions reductions and strengthen their climate commitments.

Wealthier nations, which have contributed disproportionately to global greenhouse gas emissions, have a particularly important role in achieving this goal.

While the Philippines contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, less than one percent,  Environment Secretary Juan Miguel Cuna, who leads the Philippine delegation at the climate conference, said the government is pursuing measures to further reduce the country’s carbon footprint.

Cuna identified agriculture, energy and transport as among the sectors where the government is working to cut emissions.

“In Agriculture—our primary emitting sector—we are aggressively scaling Alternate Wetting and Drying in irrigated rice paddies to achieve up to 50 percent methane reduction per hectare,” Cuna said.

In the energy and transport sectors, Cuna said the government is also working to address fuel leaks, accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources and modernize vehicle fleets.

These measures form part of the country’s efforts to contribute to global climate action while addressing emissions from different industries.