Bubble Watch: Power at top of bracket shifting SEC’s way
Editor’s note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through the games of Thursday, Feb. 14.
Put away the jokes about the Southeastern Conference being “just” a football conference. These are actually the best of times for SEC hoops.
In fact, the conference is poised to make its biggest splash on the top four seed lines of the NCAA tournament bracket in 17 years. Consider Joe Lunardi’s projected bracket.
Lunardi has Tennessee as a No. 1 seed, Kentucky as a No. 2 and LSU on the No. 4 line. If those seeds hold on Selection Sunday, it will mark the SEC’s best showing at the top of the bracket since 2002.
The actual bracket is still a month away from being released, of course, but current projections reveal the extent to which the SEC may be rising while other major conferences are in danger of taking a step back.
True, the ACC and Big Ten look about the same as last year in terms of throwing their top-4-seed weight around. But what appears likely is that the SEC’s rise in this category is being fueled by significant year-to-year declines recorded by both the Big 12 and the Big East.
The SEC’s also performing well in terms of its sheer number of projected bids. After placing eight teams in the NCAA tournament field last spring (an all-time high for the league), the SEC is poised to again send a large contingent into the field of 68.
Granted, repeating the eight-bid performance of 2018 may be a stretch (Florida catching fire would be a big help), but seven teams is looking entirely feasible: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama. Bear in mind that even a seven-bid performance would mark the SEC’s second-best showing since the introduction of the 64-team field in 1986.
Here’s how we’re projecting the bubble right now….
Bids from traditional “one-bid” leagues: 23 teams
Locks: 12 teams
The bubble: 38 teams for 33 available spots
Should be in: 18 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
ACC | Big 12| Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina
Should be in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse
Work to do: NC State, Clemson
When you lose a home game that you led in the second half by 23 points, as Louisville did rather incredibly against Duke, the only direction to move is forward. The Cardinals host Clemson this weekend, and that’s not a game to be taken lightly. The Tigers have been playing their way into the bracket of late, and Chris Mack’s team can’t afford to extend what’s now a two-game losing streak. If there’s a specific performance concern with Louisville (as seen vividly in the second half against the Blue Devils), it’s turnovers. In the course of losing three of their past four games, the Cardinals have given the ball away on 24 percent of their possessions. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Virginia Tech’s conference opponents are attempting a truly historic number of 3s. Meaning in the history of major-conference play dating back over the last decade and beyond, we’ve never seen a defense allow this many 3-point attempts. To be sure, this hasn’t prevented the Hokies’ D from clocking in right at the league average for points allowed per possession. Still, if this potential No. 5 seed is paired with a perimeter-oriented opponent in a March bracket (Villanova?), be aware that the potential exists for opponent-induced 3-point mayhem.
(Updated: Feb. 14)
Facing what could have been a classic letdown game after a thrilling overtime win against Louisville, Christ Koumadje instead scored a season-high 20 points in the Seminoles’ 88-66 victory at home over Wake Forest. Bubble Watch salutes the 7-foot-4 senior while also wishing to give a shout-out to a relatively diminutive teammate a full 6 inches shorter than Koumadje. At a mere 6-foot-10, Mfiondu Kabengele is a spunky fireplug who’s drawing better than six fouls per 40 minutes against ACC opponents. That number is especially impressive in light of the fact that the sophomore is playing in the least foul-prone major conference of the big six. Kabengele’s all-around (if underpublicized) excellence off the bench is one reason Florida State appears to be headed for a comfortably solid No. 6 seed. (Updated: Feb. 13)
It’s not easy winning road games in the ACC, certainly, but the concern for Syracuse goes beyond a 15-point loss at NC State. The concern is that Jim Boeheim’s group, never presumed to be a high-powered offense, is scoring at a rate that’s low by even the most modest expectations. In the past three outings, Oshae Brissett, Tyus Battle and their teammates have produced just 0.89 points per possession. Scoring from beyond the arc has been in particularly short supply, and Syracuse has given the ball away on 21 percent of its possessions in those games. To recap, this is a team nominally in line for a No. 8 or 9 seed but one that’s also in a scoring slump as it prepares to host Louisville and Duke at the Carrier Dome. There’s a lot on the line for the Orange in the coming days. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Bubble Watch is on the record as hyping the importance of NC State’s current two-game swing. Well, halfway into said swing, Kevin Keatts’ men are taking care of business. The Wolfpack beat Syracuse 73-58 in Raleigh, giving this group what could (depending what Clemson does) turn out to be its first win over an eventual NCAA tournament team since it defeated Auburn back in December. Now comes the mother of all ACC opportunities: Duke in Cameron Indoor. Torin Dorn and his teammates are being projected as a No. 9 or 10 seed, but needless to say, a win in Durham this weekend could alter that expectation. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Clemson Tigers
Brad Brownell’s team announced its arrival in Bubble Watch … with a loss. That can happen. Bubble Watch, like the committee itself, takes the whole-season view, and a 65-64 defeat at Miami is not in itself a deal-breaker (and certainly nothing a win at Louisville this weekend can’t offset). The Tigers are now 5-6 in ACC play, with the eight-point win over Virginia Tech at Littlejohn Coliseum serving as the team’s headline statement. Conversely, the loss at the hand of the Hurricanes is Clemson’s third Quad 2 defeat of the season. In sum, losing at Miami doesn’t change the results of 23 other games, but it does raise the stakes for looming home dates against Florida State and North Carolina, not to mention upcoming road games against the Quad 2 likes of Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Lock: Kansas
Should be in: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State
Work to do: Baylor, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma
If you want a team that avoids shocking upsets, you should definitely call Texas Tech. The Red Raiders just dismantled Oklahoma State 78-50 in Stillwater, continuing their season-long undefeated mastery of opponents outside Division I’s top 10 percent. Speaking of opponents, this is where things get interesting. Up next for Chris Beard’s team is a date with Baylor in Lubbock, followed by a visit from Kansas. The Bears won the first meeting 73-62 in a game that marked the TTU defense’s worst outing of the season in terms of points allowed per possession (1.13). For their part, the Red Raiders are a No. 5 seed in waiting that just might have the best defense in the country. The next 80 minutes in Lubbock promise to help get these Big 12 NCAA tournament seed lines sorted out at last. (Updated: Feb. 13)
The loss at home to TCU was not only surprising, it reduced Iowa State’s chances of winning a share of the Big 12 title. In terms of NCAA seeding impact, however, a single defeat at the hands of (one presumes) another at-large team, even at home, isn’t going to move the needle all that much. Falling to the Horned Frogs represented the Cyclones’ second Quad 2 loss of the season, but Wisconsin also made its way to the No. 4 line in the bracket preview and the Badgers had already lost two Quad 2 games. This isn’t a deal-breaker for ISU, just as long as the Clones don’t get it into their heads to keep doing this kind of thing. (Updated: Feb. 9)
It is time to ponder whether the team that might (repeat, might) end the incredible 14-year streak of Kansas conference titles might not also be a threat for a really nice seed. One thing we know already is that Kansas State is making opponents uncomfortable. For a second consecutive season, the Wildcats lead the Big 12 in opponent turnover percentage in conference play. That might sound like the mark of a team that’s pressing full court and trying to speed up the tempo, but Bruce Weber’s guys actually play at the slowest pace in the league. Most importantly, that strategy is working. Kansas State is a projected No. 6 seed right now, but that might not be the end of the story. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Scott Drew’s team is still struggling to get healthy and whole. King McClure missed Baylor’s 59-53 win Monday at home over Oklahoma due to an ailing knee, and Makai Mason, in his first game back after a sitting out with a toe issue, went 2-of-14 from the floor. Then again, if Devonte Bandoo keeps shooting 5-of-7 on his 3s and scoring 19 points the way he did against the Sooners, maybe BU can continue to win games while the roster’s on the mend. Any improvement in seed would be particularly welcome for a Bears team that’s being projected as a No. 8 seed. A jump of one or, especially, two seed lines could mean a more manageable round-of 32-opponent. (Updated: Feb. 11)
With a chance to take down a shorthanded version of Kansas in Fort Worth, TCU played the Jayhawks into overtime but ultimately came away with an 82-77 loss. That’s a missed opportunity, naturally (and KU fans worried about the Streak heaved a massive sigh of relief), but, in its essentials, the Horned Frogs’ profile still gives TCU fans plenty of grounds for optimism. The road victory at Iowa State, the squeaky clean 16-0 record outside of Quad 1 and, most of all, the upcoming chances to play the Cyclones, Texas Tech and Kansas State at home all add up to a good probability of earning a No. 8 seed or thereabouts. (Updated: Feb. 11)
Call it luck, karma or toughness in crunch time, but Texas looks stronger statistically than your ordinary 6-6 Big 12 team. Those six losses, by the way, have come by a combined 27 points. The Longhorns are expected to draw something in the neighborhood of a No. 9 seed, and this group could definitely give a top seed a good game in the round of 32. With a neutral-floor win over North Carolina to their credit (not to mention wins at home over Purdue and Kansas), Shaka Smart’s men make up possibly the most dangerous 14-11 team you’ve ever seen. Yes, that’s a non sequitur. Sometimes those are true. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Speaking normatively, there’s no reason why a 3-9 Big 12 team that’s lost five consecutive games should be alive in this discussion at this moment in time. (Later, after a few wins? Sure.) But, speaking empirically, whole-season profiling is still (barely) keeping the Sooners in this discussion. One additional factor aiding OU here? Luck. Oklahoma’s Quad 1 wins came at home against Wofford, on a neutral floor against Florida and on the road against Northwestern. All three opponents are just barely on the correct side of the home, neutral and road opponent NET rankings needed for Quad 1 status (Nos. 30, 50 and 75, respectively). (Updated: Feb. 11)
Lock: Marquette
Should be in: Villanova
Work to do: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Butler
Few coaches talk a better woe-are-we game than Jay Wright. By that, of course, Bubble Watch refers to the art of talking like you or your team isn’t very good even though you or your team is in fact very good. The coach who has won two of the past three national titles has been at it again this month (“We’re not a great team. We’re just trying to keep getting better”), and it’s true that this group of Wildcats is no match for what we saw a year ago. Nevertheless, presumptive 2019 No. 5 seed Villanova is doing highly impressive and indeed game-changing work in the area of shot volume. In particular, the Wildcat program can boast a ridiculously low, league-leading turnover percentage in Big East play for a second consecutive season. Listen to what Wright says but also watch what his team does. (Updated: Feb. 13)
“Welcome back to another episode of ‘We swept Marquette.’ We’re your hosts, the St. John’s Red Storm. We just won a home game against Butler, 77-73 in overtime. John Gasaway would probably say that’s not that big a deal, but losing certainly would have been. Now we’re up to .500 in Big East play, showing up in the mock brackets as a No. 9 seed and getting ready to host Villanova at the Garden this weekend. Sounds like we could be moving up to ‘should be in’ very soon. Join us again next time, and remember: We swept Marquette.” (Updated: Feb. 12)
Myles Powell was apparently tired of Markus Howard getting all the attention for high-volume scoring in the Big East. The junior went off for 30 points, punctuated by 10-of-10 shooting at the line, as Seton Hall cruised past Georgetown 90-75 in Newark. Just two weeks removed from a four-game losing streak, the Pirates are back to .500 in conference play, thanks to victories at home over Creighton and the Hoyas. That said, no team projected as a No. 12 seed can feel too comfortable, and this weekend’s game against the Bluejays in Omaha could be tougher than it looks. Greg McDermott’s team carries a 4-8 record in the Big East, but three of those losses came in overtime. (Updated: Feb. 13)
At 5-7 in Big East play after an overtime loss at St. John’s and with its marquee neutral-floor win over Florida looking less marquee with each passing week, Butler badly needs to refurbish its profile. The Bulldogs have road games remaining at Marquette and Villanova, and a win in at least one of those contests is now looking more or less essential for a team listed as “first four out” by Lunardi. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Work to do: Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana
Life is brutal at the top of the Big Ten. Ethan Happ has scored 38 points and pulled down 23 rebounds in the past two games, and all that got Wisconsin was losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Nick Ward was particularly effective on Happ for the Spartans, forcing the Badgers senior into six turnovers and making him take 20 shots to get his 20 points. Now Greg Gard’s team, which is 0-2 since it was tapped as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA’s bracket preview, gets a welcome six days of rest before returning to the court at home against Illinois. (Updated: Feb. 12)
If you’ve watched Maryland this season, you’ve probably been told this is one of the youngest teams in the country. That is indeed correct, and it helps explain both how good this team is and how great it could become. As one would expect from a youthful group, the Terrapins have suffered from an exceedingly large turnover disparity in Big Ten play. Take turnovers out of that equation, however, and Bruno Fernando, Anthony Cowan Jr. & Co. can play with anyone. Heck, leave turnovers in the discussion and the Terps are still tough. Ask Purdue, which came up on the short end of a 70-56 final score in College Park despite committing seven fewer turnovers than Maryland. For a projected No. 6 seed, this is one strong team. (Updated: Feb. 12)
If you paused in hitting “refresh” on this page, you know the Iowa writeup before this one waxed eloquent on how the Hawkeyes don’t have any truly bad losses. Well, that’s still true, but, man, did Iowa come close. Fran McCaffery’s guys needed a last-second 3 from Jordan Bohannon to escape with an 80-79 win at home over Northwestern. Absent the Hawkeyes’ amazing rally from 11 down with 2 minutes, 5 seconds remaining, the Wildcats would have handed the home team a Quad 2 loss. Instead, Iowa’s profile is still unblemished by anything close to that. Well done, Hawkeyes. Your projected No. 6 seed is looking solid after all. (Updated: Feb. 10)
A 63-56 loss at home to Illinois constitutes a Quad 3 defeat for Ohio State, the team’s first such setback. In other words, the game is literally the Buckeyes’ worst loss of the season in profile terms. Then again, Baylor’s walking around whistling a happy tune in the brackets as a projected No. 8 seed even though the Bears have suffered two Quad 4 losses. Meaning the worry for OSU isn’t necessarily the loss itself, one that this team’s profile can well absorb. (Yet another reason why that win at Cincinnati is so valuable.) Rather, the concern is whether the outcome marks a new turn for the worse in performance. (Updated: Feb. 15)
Losing 62-61 at Nebraska isn’t nearly as devastating as one might think, given the Cornhuskers’ 3-10 Big Ten record entering the game. In fact, Tim Miles’ team looks really good to the NET, and that was very much a Quad 1 game the Gophers were playing. That said, Minnesota is a 6-8 Big Ten team being shown as a No. 11 seed in mid-February. Everything in that sentence fairly screams, “Win some games,” starting with back-to-back visits to Williams Arena by Indiana and Michigan. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Here we are again, plotting out “how many wins will it take” scenarios for an Indiana team with victories over Marquette and Louisville. Well, after the Hoosiers’ 55-52 loss at home to Ohio State, the hill in between IU and a bid is that much steeper. Archie Miller’s team is 4-9 in Big Ten play, and Bubble Watch is on the record as assuming the magic number here is five more wins — meaning only that at that point a conversation can begin. It still might not result in a bid, mind you, but we can discuss a 9-11 Big Ten team with wins over the Golden Eagles and the Cardinals. Anything short of that, however, is unlikely to get the job done. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State
Now we know that Washington won’t run the table in the Pac-12. The loss at Arizona State means Mike Hopkins’ men will likely reach Selection Sunday showing road victories at Arizona and Oregon as their best wins. This is still the Pac-12’s best per-possession team by a healthy margin, one that’s likely to post a gaudy record in conference play. All of that might well result in a seed in the middle of the bracket and, consequently, a game against a very high seed in the round of 32. (Updated: Feb. 9)
Recording a 77-73 loss at Colorado qualifies as a Quad 2 defeat, so, no, that’s not ideal for an Arizona State team straddling the line between “last four byes” and plain old “last four in.” But hey, this is Arizona State we’re talking about. Losing in Boulder is the least extreme thing this team has done in days. Whether you’re speaking of the 21-point Quad 4 loss at home to Washington State or the ensuing 75-63 win over Washington in Tempe, the Sun Devils do nothing halfway. Bottom line, ASU would likely be in, barely, if the selection were held today. Absent the most extreme string of either wins or losses in the arid Quad 1-free savanna known as the Pac-12, the Sun Devils could remain in this state of bubbly uncertainty for the foreseeable future. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida
Remember last season (and several seasons before that) when it seemed as if Kansas won every single close game that it played? That crunch-time magic has somehow been replicated in Baton Rouge in 2019. LSU did lose a nail-biter at home to Arkansas, but the Tigers are 6-1 overall in SEC games decided by single digits. Most impressively, Will Wade’s men brought their 40th minute mastery to hallowed Rupp Arena and came away with a somewhat controversial but nevertheless impressive 73-71 win over Kentucky. The Tigers are the only visiting team that has won a game in Lexington this season. That, plus a 10-1 SEC record, could presage an even higher seed in the bracket than the currently projected No. 4 line for Wade’s group. (Updated: Feb. 12)
No team has done more with a sub.-500 conference record than MSU, which is 5-6 in the SEC but popping up as a No. 7 seed in mock brackets. Well, there’s a reason for that. The Bulldogs have more Quad 1 wins (six) than they do SEC wins. Ben Howland’s team will get the chance to add to both win totals, of course, when it plays on the road in the coming weeks at Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee. Meanwhile, Quinndary Weatherspoon is continuing to do a pretty fair imitation of Buddy Hield by displaying uncommon accuracy all over the court, on 2s, 3s and free throws alike. (Updated: Feb. 12)
The 60-55 loss to Ole Miss at home brings down the curtain on a two-game sweep at the hands of the Rebels that was notably short on points. In the two losses, Auburn shot 33 percent on its 2s and scored just 0.89 points per trip. The first contest was played at the Tigers’ preferred pace (75 possessions), the second was not (62), and the outcome was more or less precisely the same each time. The loss drops an Auburn team that’s supposed to be in line for a No. 7 seed to 5-6 in the SEC, though Bruce Pearl’s men have a fair shot to get on the right side of .500 with upcoming games at Vanderbilt and at home against Arkansas. Still, the Tigers won’t be too saddened if they don’t run into Ole Miss at any point in the field of 68. (Updated: Feb. 13)
By completing the season sweep of Auburn with a five-point win on the road, Ole Miss put an exclamation point on what might be the cleanest profile a 17-7 team could construct for itself. Every one of those seven losses, for example, falls under the heading of Quad 1. Plus, the Rebels own road wins not only against the Tigers but also at Mississippi State. Make no mistake: Winning on the home court of an Auburn team that, at tipoff, was ranked No. 20 in the NET is going to serve Ole Miss very well in the committee room. If Kermit Davis’ team emerges at 20-7 after its impending three-game take-care-of-business interlude (home games against Missouri and Georgia, with a visit to South Carolina in between), we’ll no longer be envisioning the Rebels as a mere No. 9 seed. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Alabama is sticking around in the projected field of 68 as a No. 11 seed or thereabouts, but Avery Johnson’s team will have to build on its home wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State to truly feel secure. LSU and Auburn are both coming to Tuscaloosa at the beginning of next month, and a win in one of those two games would certainly help matters. Before that, however, Bama has to take care of business at home against Florida this weekend. You will doubtless hear that the game between the Tide and the Gators has big bubble implications. Believe it. (Updated: Feb. 12)
Look who’s still hanging around in “first four out” territory. The Gators are 13-11 and 5-6 in SEC play, not numbers that necessarily translate into “at-large.” Then again, this is a group with a single talismanic Quad 1 win (at Arkansas) and an NET ranking in the 40s. Basically, Florida has been treading water, losing games that few observers could blame the Gators for losing (at Auburn and at Tennessee) while winning just once in conference play against an at-large-caliber opponent (beating Ole Miss in Gainesville in overtime). But 13-11 is what it is, and the time for treading water is over: UF plays at Alabama this weekend and follows that with a road game at LSU. Those games offer the Gators a chance to break into the bracket. They also threaten to put a bid further out of reach. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
Mick Cronin’s team went scoreless over the final 6:11 of the game and lost 65-58 at Houston. Jarron Cumberland scored 27 points for UC (albeit on 25 shots), but it was not to be. The outcome represents a lost chance to earn a higher seed, far and away the best single opportunity the Bearcats will get before Selection Sunday. Then again, there’s no shortage of teams in the American or, indeed, nationally, that would gladly switch places with a group cruising toward something in the neighborhood of a No. 7 seed. (Updated: Feb. 10)
Give UCF credit. The Knights have shown an unmistakable ability to cling tenaciously to what’s supposed to be a precarious spot: the very bottom of the at-large field. According to Joe Lunardi, Johnny Dawkins’ team would be one of the last teams in the field not sent to Dayton if the season ended today. That status is holding steady after UCF took care of South Florida at home 78-65. The Knights will get the opportunity to strengthen their hold on an at-large bid thanks to two remaining games against Cincinnati and one at Houston. First up, however, is a home date against Memphis. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Speaking of the very bottom of the at-large field, Temple is moving in somewhat the same bubble circles as UCF. The Knights have the superior NET ranking (in the 40s, versus the 50-something rank carried by the Owls), but of course, it’s Fran Dunphy’s men who have the win to end all American wins: Houston’s only loss of the season came against Temple on Jan. 9 in the Liacouras Center. One potential worry for the Owls, however, is that barring an encounter in the conference tournament, their games against the Cougars and the Bearcats are already in the books. There’ll be no more regular-season chances at the biggest wins in the conference. Then again, Temple and UCF meet head-to-head in the last game of the season in Philadelphia. That showdown could have a bubble implication or three. (Updated: Feb. 13)
Lock: Gonzaga
Should be in: Nevada, Buffalo
Work to do: Wofford, VCU
Eric Musselman went after Pac-12 opponents in making his 2018-19 schedule, and, well, that league isn’t having its best season. The dip in what was supposed to be major-conference opponent strength explains why Nevada is currently being projected as a No. 4 seed with a 21-1 record. It also accounts for the fact that Musselman’s team has yet to play a Quad 1 game this season. That will change, at last, when the Wolf Pack visit Utah State at the beginning of next month. (Updated: Feb. 9)
The Bulls have now successfully completed the first half of a crucial two-game road swing. Nate Oats’ team won at Akron 76-70, thanks in part to 21 points and 11-of-12 shooting at the line from CJ Massinburg. Next up for the Bulls is a trip to Toledo, where the season’s last Quad 1 opportunity awaits. Buffalo won the first game between these two teams 110-80, a result that gave little indication that the Rockets might be the best team the MAC has produced in the past five years … with the exception of Buffalo this season. Expect an NCAA tournament atmosphere as Tod Kowalczyk’s team defends its home floor and the Bulls try to improve what’s anticipated to be a No. 7 seed. (Updated: Feb. 12)
The Southern Conference has never sent an at-large team to the NCAA tournament, but there’s a first time for everything. Wofford is in this discussion because the Terriers are 22-4, with the losses coming to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State. Mike Young’s team additionally own Quad 1 wins at UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State. Finally, it’s worth noting Wofford won at South Carolina by 20, even though that shows up on the profile as a Quad 2 victory. (Updated: Feb. 15)
If Bubble Watch is correct to be bullish on how well a somewhat underrated Texas team might perform the rest of the way, the correctness will be good news for VCU. Any impressive exploits yet to be recorded by the Longhorns can only add luster to the tournament profile of a Rams team that went to Austin on Dec. 5 and came away with a 54-53 win. (Feast your eyes, the score itself says “hard-fought.”) Will that profile be enough to get Mike Rhoades’ team an at-large bid? Quite possibly, but make no mistake, recent selection history doesn’t furnish too many feel-good precedents. It’s likely to be a close call. (Updated: Feb. 13)