Daily notes: Pitcher projections and hitter ratings for Thursday
Thursdays are often used as either a travel day or an off day for MLB teams. As a result, Thursdays typically represent the ugliest slate of the week. Unfortunately, that is indeed the case here. If you’re looking for starting pitchers for streaming purposes, the pickings are slim. The good news is that a lack of quality pitching options means that plenty of hitters are matching up against subpar hurlers. So, unless you really need the innings, this might be a good day to use those extra roster spots on bats instead of arms.
Derek Carty provides daily fantasy recommendations for today’s FanDuel contests.
Here’s a look at the day’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues.
Pitchers to stream
Aaron Sanchez (R), rostered in 11 percent of ESPN leagues, Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians: Sanchez pitched well in his first start of the season last week, holding the Tigers to no runs on just three hits across five innings, with six strikeouts. More importantly, his four-seamer averaged 94.8 mph on the radar gun after it averaged just 93.7 mph in 2018. Granted, shutting down the Tigers lineup isn’t saying much, but Cleveland’s bats haven’t looked any more threatening in the early going. With Francisco Lindor sidelined, the Indians scored just 10 runs over their first four games. This is a good spot for Sanchez to keep things rolling.
Jakob Junis (R), 26 percent, Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers: Junis’ first outing last week against the White Sox wasn’t particularly noteworthy, as he surrendered three earned runs in 5 2/3 frames. Still, he racked up six strikeouts, walked only one batter, and limited hard contact (18%). This matches the profile we saw from Junis last season, when he missed a decent number of bats (8.3 K/9) and showed good control (2.2 BB/9). Ultimately, Junis isn’t an arm we can trust against stout offenses — but a matchup against the Tigers? That’s good enough to take a chance on the Royals right-hander.
Spencer Turnbull (R), 1 percent, Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals: I had originally planned to highlight Reynaldo Lopez here. However, I just couldn’t in good conscious recommend the young righty against a red-hot Mariners lineup after he showed a huge dip in velocity in his first start, dropping from 95.5 mph last season to 92.4 mph in his 2019 debut. Instead, we’ll roll the dice with Turnbull, who missed a lot of bats in the minors and gets a very favorable matchup against a punchless Royals offense. In a perfect world, we’d take a “wait and see” approach here, but on a short slate, our options are limited.
Bullpen
The closer landscape is as ugly as I can recall in recent memory, but in standard ESPN leagues, there are still saves available on the waiver wire. Case in point: Alex Colome has been named as the White Sox closer, and he successfully converted his first opportunity. Colome saved 47 games as recently as 2017. With so many uncertain situations around the league, this is one that is pretty well defined. Colome is available in 70 percent of ESPN leagues.
Projected game scores
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are full-year 2018 statistics
Catcher
Tucker Barnhart (S), 25 percent, Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Jordan Lyles): Barnhart is a quality fantasy option in two-catcher leagues, but he’s relegated to being no more than waiver-wire fodder in one-catcher formats. On Thursday, he makes for a quality streaming option against Lyles, who has allowed a career .354 wOBA to left-handed batters.
First Base
Justin Bour (L), 11 percent, Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Edinson Volquez): Bour is off to a slow start, but this is the type of matchup that could jump-start him. The left-handed slugger produced an .819 OPS and .221 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2018, and it’s been years since Volquez has been an effective big-league pitcher.
Second Base
Ben Zobrist (S), 31 percent, Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (LHP Max Fried): Fried is a talented young pitcher, but control issues and hard contact have made him a liability. While Zobrist may not be as fantasy-relevant as he was just a few seasons ago, he still hit a robust .333/.381/.407 against left-handed pitching in 2018.
Third Base
Jung Ho Kang (R), 9 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle): Kang makes for an intriguing power play on Thursday. Mahle had trouble keeping the ball in the park last season (1.77 HR/9), while Kang has shown reverse splits for his career, putting up a .285/.357/.502 triple-slash in his career against right-handers.
Shortstop
Dansby Swanson (R), 10 percent, Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Yu Darvish): Time will tell whether or not Darvish can bounce back to the elite hurler he was a couple of seasons ago, but his first outing of the season last week was downright ugly, as he allowed three runs and walked seven in just 2 2/3 innings. If Darvish is still rusty on Thursday, Swanson and the rest of the Braves lineup should be able to take advantage.
Corner Infield
Ryan O’Hearn (L), 4 percent, Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (RHP Spencer Turnbull): O’Hearn launched 12 homers in just 44 games with the Royals last season, including a .313/.403/.705 slash against right-handers. The 25-year-old slugger, who clubbed his first dinger of 2019 on Tuesday against the Twins, should continue to get regular playing time against righties. He carries nice upside whenever he has the platoon advantage, like he does on Thursday.
Middle Infield
Kolten Wong (L), 38 percent, St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Nick Margevicius): Wong has opened the season on a tear, smashing three homers and swiping two bags in his first five games. The odds of him staying fantasy-relevant all season long aren’t great, but he makes for a quality streaming option while he’s running hot. Obviously, a lefty-on-lefty matchup isn’t ideal, but a matchup against Margevicius, who has made only one start above High-A, shouldn’t scare you off. If Yairo Munoz gets the start over Wong on Tuesday, he’d be a “plug and play” option, too.
Outfield
Jay Bruce (L), 45 percent, Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (RHP Reynaldo Lopez): Like Wong, Bruce has opened with a bang, cranking three home runs on the young season. On Thursday, he gets a nice park upgrade going to Guaranteed Rate Field, where Lopez has had trouble keeping the ball in the park — 19 of the 25 homers he allowed last season were at home.
Shin-Soo Choo (L), 35 percent, Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (RHP Matt Harvey): Choo may be 36 years old, but he hasn’t slowed down at all against right-handed pitching. In 2018, he put up a .285/.399/.493 slash against right-handers with a .385 wOBA. Not only does Choo get a favorable matchup against Harvey, but Angels Stadium is now much more conducive to left-handed power after the right-field wall was lowered last season.
Brett Gardner (L), 16 percent, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Alex Cobb): The Yankees lineup has been ravaged by injuries, with Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks all sidelined. Even so, Gardner is currently batting atop the lineup, setting the table for Aaron Judge and what’s left. That’s still a good place to be. You’re going to want some exposure against Cobb, who put up a 4.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 28 starts last season.
Hitter matchup ratings
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.