Errol Spence Jr. vs. Shawn Porter predictions: Who will win?
Errol Spence Jr. explains why he wants to the best pound-for-pound undisputed welterweight in the world and what he expects from fighting Shawn Porter. (1:04)
At this point, it’s the only question worth asking: Who will win Saturday night’s welterweight unification title bout between IBF titleholder Errol Spence Jr. and WBC titlist Shawn Porter at Staples Center in Los Angeles?
Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) is coming off a dominant unanimous decision victory over Mikey Garcia in March. Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs) defeated Yordenis Ugas by split decision also in March.
Who takes the win? Our experts make their picks.
Dan Rafael
ESPN.com
Spence by decision
I love this fight and expect it to be somewhat competitive, but Spence is a pound-for-pound caliber talent with no real flaws in his game. I just think he does everything at least a little better than Porter. In the end that will show through with Spence winning by a competitive but clear decision.
Mark Kriegel
ESPN boxing analyst
Spence by late TKO
Porter’s great talent is his engine, a relentless will to pressure and maul. It’s difficult not to admire him. But it’s just as difficult to see how he wins here. Spence has the advantage in height, reach and power. Porter’s not beating him from distance; his only shot is coming in. That’s where he gets caught — with Spence’s exceptional jab, and perhaps a lead hook. Then there’s that hook to the body. Spence does it as well as anyone, certainly well enough to make even Porter a little less relentless. Question is whether Spence stops him. I think it’s more than likely he does late, in the 11th or 12th.
Nick Parkinson
ESPN UK
Spence by decision
It might be messy early on as Porter tries to turn it into a dog fight, but Spence’s reach and boxing skills should see him pull away for a comfortable points win. Spence is in good and improving form. It’s hard to go against him.
Teddy Atlas
ESPN boxing analyst
Spence by decision
Porter showed a different look in the Yordenis Ugas fight. Rather than fire and brimstone, he sprinkled in some jabs and footwork. Not sure if it was a dress rehearsal for the Spence fight, but in the end, whether coming forward or moving around, there is no area inside the ring where Porter can outperform Spence. Spence drops Porter with a counter shot, on his way to a one-sided decision.
Nigel Collins
ESPN.com
Spence by unanimous decision
Porter abandoned his usual roughhouse style in his most recent fight, and although he won a 12-round split decision over Ugas, his performance was not impressive. He’s not going to outbox Spence, so reverting to his swarming style would probably be Porter’s best bet. If he does, it will result in a more entertaining fight, but it won’t be enough to beat Spence, a multitalented fighter in his prime.
Steve Kim
ESPN.com
Spence by decision
Spence has all the advantages, physically and fundamentally, and while Porter is certainly a hard-nosed and rugged grinder, I just don’t see him having the offensive firepower to match Spence’s. In addition to being the better pure puncher of the two, he is also the smoother boxer from the outside.
Eric Raskin
Showtime Boxing
Spence by decision
I hope Porter isn’t planning to box in this fight, a strategy that cost him rounds in his past couple of fights and won’t serve him well against Spence. If Porter is the best version of his awkward pressure fighter self, he can give Spence some problems. Either way, I favor the longer, slicker, more technically precise Spence over the distance.
Joe Cortez
ESPN Deportes
Porter by split decision
Porter has a lot more experience against top fighters and that will help him against Spence. Close fight, but I think Porter will take a split-decision victory.
Charles Moynihan
ESPN bureau producer
Spence by TKO
If he isn’t the face of boxing right now, Spence may very well be the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in a year. Power, hand speed and footwork is the difference in this fight. Porter is a plodder — always comes straight ahead with no lateral movement and changes angles and levels infrequently. Porter receives his final big payday and his ledger receives an L in the process. Spence victorious via 11th-round TKO.
Salvador Rodriguez
ESPNdeportes.com
Spence by decision
This could be the most difficult fight Spence has had in his career, because that is precisely Porter’s specialty: making fights difficult for anyone. In the end, Spence is going to be OK. Spence will impose his best technique and speed on a warrior like Porter to take a unanimous-decision victory.
Claudia Trejos
Boxing analysts
Spence by decision
The fighters’ style should allow this to be a good fight. Porter, being a short 147, is giving a big advantage on size to Spence. While Porter has shown skills and grit, Spence is a taller, longer and a better boxer. I believe Spence will systematically break down the veteran to take the win by decision.
Bernardo Pilatti
Boxing analyst
Spence by unanimous decision
Helped by his experience, Porter will complicate Spence’s fight plan in the first three or four rounds. After that, the IBF champion will control the battle with his power and size to win a decision in all the cards.
Jorge Eduardo Sánchez
ESPN Deportes boxing host
Spence by decision
Porter has an awkward style, nobody looks good against him. He has the ability to complicate his opponent’s strategy. He moves well and slips most shots under his opponent’s guard. However, Spence is on another level. He’s bigger and attacks the body very well. Spence is superior, he has better skills and he will prove it.
Errol Spence Jr. wants to face Manny Pacquiao next and not Terence Crawford after Shawn Porter, because facing Pacquiao would be a lucrative fight.
Manny Pacquiao
Welterweight titlist
Spence by decision
It’s going to be a good fight, a close fight, but I think Spence will win. It’s not gonna be a one-sided fight, it’s gonna be a competitive fight. The fans will be treated to a once-in-a-lifetime experience in this fight.
Deontay Wilder
Heavyweight titlist
Spence by unanimous decision
Spence and Porter is a clash of styles that makes for an exciting, high-profile unification fight. Errol is trying to be ruler of the division with a statement win, so I expect him to come out and perform. Shawn is going to come for the full 12 rounds, no matter what. Errol has never fought anyone like that, which makes this so intriguing. But I see Errol as being the best in the division, hands down, and I’m picking him by unanimous decision. I don’t see him knocking Shawn out.
Andy Ruiz Jr.
Unified heavyweight titlist
Porter by split decision
I’ve trained — practically grown up — with Porter, who has a difficult style. Spence is a great fighter and Shawn’s the underdog, but I was the underdog against Anthony Joshua and we all know what happened there. Shawn’s probably gonna have to be rough in there and stay on the inside, but I expect him to do it and win a decision.
Mikey Garcia
Former four-division titlist
Spence by decision
I don’t believe Spence will win by a knockout. I believe that it goes 12 rounds, but I do have Spence beating Porter.
Keith Thurman
Former unified welterweight titlist
Spence by decision/late KO
This is two world-champion warriors going at it in a great fight. They have a common opponent in Kell Brook, who beat Porter and was knocked out by Spence. That’s why my pick is Spence. Styles make fights, and Shawn’s aggression could be difficult for Spence to handle since Spence has never faced an opponent like Shawn. Shawn is gonna come hungry but Brook and I handled that pressure, and I believe that Spence — being a tall southpaw with power and a great jab — will be able to deal with it as well. Spence has the power to stop Shawn, and if he does, I believe that would happen in the later rounds, like he did Brook.
Yordenis Ugas
Welterweight contender
Porter by decision
It is a great confrontation of two world champions. I think Spence is a favorite because of the great fighter he has proven to be. But Porter is a tough fighter with a great résumé and will fight hard until the final bell. I have no favorite in this 50-50 fight, but I lean toward Porter to win.
Robert Guerrero
Former two-time world titlist
Porter by split decision
This is a very difficult fight to call, but I’ve gotta go with Porter to beat Spence. With Spence being as tall as he is, Porter can’t try to box like he did against Ugas, or Spence will pick him apart.
Paulie Malignaggi
Former three-time world titlist
Spence by late KO
Porter relies on a physical presence but Spence is a very big welterweight and that can nullify Porters’ physicality. Spence’s body punching is key.