Big jump in B.C.'s Tory vote in rural ridings points to polarization, political scientist says
Credit to Author: David Carrigg| Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2019 01:47:51 +0000
B.C. is a province more divided after the Conservatives made big gains in rural areas, according to a University of B.C. political scientist.
However, Richard Johnston said many of the gains in voter share were in already concrete Conservative ridings, so it “didn’t do much.”
“The Conservatives got more voters, but they were in Conservative ridings. They did increase their share of seats, but not in a way that was efficient,” Johnston told Postmedia News.
For example, in Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies the Tory incumbent, Bob Zimmer, won 38,157 of the votes (70 per cent) compared with second-place Mavis Erickson of the Liberals with 6,304.
In the 2015 election, while still winning, Zimmer garnered just under 53 per cent of the vote.
In Cariboo-Prince George, incumbent Conservative Todd Doherty secured 49 per cent of the vote, compared with 37 per cent in the previous election.
In Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, incumbent Tory Cathy McLeod won 45 per cent of the vote compared with 35 per cent in 2015.
In Chilliwack-Hope, incumbent Mark Strahl won 49 per cent, compared with 42 per cent in 2015.
Johnston said the Conservatives did take some seats off the Liberals and NDP. In particular, Kootenay Columbia was lost by the NDP’s Wayne Stetski to Conservative Rob Morrison by a wide margin. This riding was traditionally Tory.
Closer to Metro Vancouver, but not urban ridings, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge and Cloverdale-Langley City went back to blue. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge was won by Marc Dalton over Liberal incumbent Dan Ruimy, while Cloverdale-Langley City saw Conservative Tamara Jansen knock off incumbent Grit John Aldag.
Kelowna-Lake Country also went back to the Conservatives, with Liberal incumbent Stephen Fuhr knocked out by Tracy Gray with 46 per cent of the vote compared with 32 per cent for Fuhr.
Vancouver Island remained an NDP stronghold, taking all the seats aside from the two won by the Green party. North Island-Powell River and Skeena-Bulkley Valley remained NDP.
“The (Conservatives) eliminated the few Liberals outside the Lower Mainland,” Johnston said. “But their failure to make inroads in the Lower Mainland left the province quite divided. In terms of electoral dynamics in the province the story was basically in the Lower Mainland.”
Johnston said the increase in Tory voters numbers in rural B.C. was more a negative reaction to the Liberals than a positive one to the Conservatives.
“The country is actually quite polarized, so even though the result of the election has a certain familiar ring to it, and Parliament might function in ways that are similar to previous parliaments when you have a Liberal, NDP combination, I think there is a part of the country that is deeply unhappy with this.”
Johnston described B.C. as being “really two countries.”
“There’s the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, and then the rest. The outcome of the election is a frustration for the rest of the province and they’ve shown that by rallying to the Conservatives. The route to power for the Conservatives is through the extremely competitive, but ethnically diverse ridings in the metropolitan places. They had a shot if they had succeeded in it.”
The Tories won 17 seats in B.C., with the Liberals and NDP each taking 11, the Greens two and one independent (Jody Wilson-Raybould).