Youth vs. experience: Ranking the WTA Finals field
This has been a year of surprises in the WTA Tour, starting with Serena Williams‘ struggles as she tried — unsuccessfully — to lock down a record-equaling 24th Grand Slam title, Simona Halep‘s startling win at Wimbledon, 15-year-old Coco Gauff‘s sensational debut and Bianca Andreescu‘s jet-propelled breakout.
The WTA Finals, pitting the top eight performers of 2019 against one another in a round-robin/knockout format, starts Sunday in Shenzhen, China. That, too, is new if not exactly surprising. The five previous editions had been hosted by Singapore. There’s a distinct divide this year in the qualifiers between the young contingent, led by 19-year-old Andreescu, and the veterans, personified by 29-year-old Petra Kvitova.
Here are our power rankings of the elite eight in ascending order:
2019 record: 42-15, one title, Wimbledon
WTA ranking: No. 5
Best WTA Finals finish: Finalist, 2014
Halep still has a hangover following that nearly flawless performance against heavily-favored Williams at Wimbledon. For her entire career, Halep had been awed and intimidated at the most important tournament of the year, the tournament that her Romanian compatriots — a massive fan base — revere above all others. Halep was convinced she didn’t have the game to win Wimbledon until she did.
Since that win, the 28-year-old dynamo is a disappointing 6-5, all on hard courts. She compiled a 5-3 record against top-10 peers (all meetings before Wimbledon) but managed to avoid Naomi Osaka and Andreescu all year. If there’s an upside for Halep, it’s that she ought to be fit and fresh for Shenzhen. With her year already a great success (she never has been greedy for titles), she ought to be able to play loose and free. That could complicate things for those eager, young players named Ashleigh Barty, Osaka and Andreescu.
2019 record: 35-21, no titles
WTA ranking: No. 8
Best WTA Finals finish: Champion, 2018
The defending champion is up against it. She hasn’t won a tournament all year, and she has beaten only one top-10 opponent (Madison Keys, who was No. 10 at the time). It seemed almost fitting when the 25-year-old Ukrainian’s regular season ended in Moscow on a sour note. The top seed, she was beaten in her first match.
Svitolina built her career gradually, relying on a succession of coaches to boost her bread-and-butter baseline game. Primarily a defensive counter-puncher, she seems to have hit her peak in 2017, during which she won three premium-grade WTA titles and rose as high as No. 3 in the world. She entered the US Open that year needing to reach the semis to take over the No. 1 ranking, but she lost in the fourth round.
Svitolina did take one dramatic step forward this year. Her record at the majors had been mediocre, but in 2019 she made two semifinals and a quarterfinal. It’s hard to imagine that she’ll be able to handle the pressure of defending her title when she hasn’t penetrated beyond the quarterfinals in four hard-court tournaments since the US Open.
2019 record: 37-13, with two titles including Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
WTA ranking: No. 6
Best WTA Finals finish: Champion, 2011
Kvitova and fellow qualifier Karolina Pliskova have a lot in common besides their height (both are over 6 feet), powerful serves and Czech nationality. Kvitova is probably the best active player never to reach the No. 1 ranking, and Pliskova is on the short list for best player never to have won a major. Both are dazzling, yet flawed, competitors.
Kvitova got off to a great start this year, going 18-3 with three finals appearances (including the Australian Open) and a title in Sydney. By March, she was once again in contention for the No. 1 ranking. The two-time Wimbledon champion appeared primed to write a fairy-tale ending to her return from career-threatening surgery on her left hand when she won Stuttgart in April (her fourth final of the young year).
But once again, Kvitova tailed off with the top ranking within view — undone by a career-long tendency to commit unforced errors and succumb to nerves. She failed to make her seeding at Wimbledon (fourth-round loss) and the US Open (second-round defeat) and went 3-3 on the year against top-10 rivals. Her win at the WTA Finals eight years ago recedes ever further in the rearview mirror.
2019 record: 48-20, two titles including Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
WTA ranking: No. 7
Best WTA Finals finish: First appearance
The former prodigy from Switzerland has had a career year and will ride a wave of confidence into Shenzhen thanks to her win in Moscow in the final week of the regular season. It has been a long road back for the 22-year-old, whose career was derailed by back and wrist injuries shortly after she earned a place in the top 10 at age 18.
Bencic has an excellent grasp of strategy and makes good use of the entire court. Her grooved strokes are silken and consistent. Bencic has frequently been compared to Martina Hingis, whose mother Melanie Molitor also helped develop Bencic. Bencic also has something Hingis lacked: explosive power. Bencic is 9-6 against top-10 players this year, 2-0 against Osaka. On the hard courts of Dubai she had successive wins over Halep, Svitolina and Kvitova on the way to the title.
Roger Federer has been a mentor to Bencic, helping her overcome a tendency to get too emotional and lose focus on the court. “That’s my goal,” Bencic told reporters at the last Hopman Cup, “reaching that [Federer-esque] serenity.”
2019 record: 50-15, four titles including Italian Open
WTA ranking: No. 2
Best WTA Finals finish: Runner-up, 2018
Pliskova has found all kinds of ways not to win a Grand Slam title or the tour championship. She played the title match at this event last year but came up short. She could make a breakthrough here, but it would be flying in the face of history to predict it.
Pliskova, 27, is 6-foot-1 but prone to shrinking when she faces a big ask. She keeps her ranking high by taking on a heavy workload (18 regular-season tournaments this year, more than any of the other top six players). She navigates the early rounds expertly, having lost her opening match only twice this year, neither time at a major tournament. She won the hard-court title at Zhengzhou in mid-September over a lackluster field but won only one match in her next two events, including the important tournament in Beijing.
Pliskova is a tepid 3-2 against top-10 rivals.
2019 record: 52-11, three titles including French Open
WTA ranking: No. 1
Best WTA Finals finish: First appearance
News alert for anyone ready to concede the “Rivalry of the ’20s” honors to the Osaka vs. Andreescu pairing: Barty might insert herself into that conversation as early as next week.
While it was the unexpected win at the French Open that propelled Barty to the No. 1 ranking, the foundation for the 23-year-old’s success was laid in the early hard-court season. She was an outstanding 18-3 over the first three months of the year, culminating with her breakthrough to the elite level with a title run at the highly competitive Miami Open.
Barty took unexpected fourth-round losses to players ranked well below her at Wimbledon and the US Open, but she might be regaining her momentum. She logged a semifinal and final on the Asian swing, the latter a loss in Beijing to Osaka. She’ll be looking for redemption.
The hard courts in Shenzhen should suit Barty’s varied game. If the surface plays quick, her useful one-handed, slice backhand will be extra effective. Barty was 8-5 against top-10 opponents this year. Only Kvitova in that group managed to beat her more than once.
2019 record: 46-5, four titles including US Open
WTA ranking: No. 4
Best WTA Finals finish: First appearance
Although she’s only 19, Andreescu might already be the finest big-match player on the WTA Tour. Her record shows it: Three of the four titles she has won were either Grand Slams or WTA top-tier events. The exception was the minor event Andreescu won in late January in Newport Beach, California, when she was an unknown ranked No. 106.
The flare-up of an early season shoulder injury forced Andreescu to pull out of the French Open and miss Wimbledon entirely. When she returned, she went on a 16-match tear finally ended by Osaka in Beijing in the last regular-season tournament for both women. It was a barn burner, ending 6-4 in the third set. The result was Andreescu’s first loss to a top-10 player, following the eight wins she compiled through the course of this year.
Expect Andreescu to show up big in Shenzhen. The winner might have to win three consecutive matches against top-quality players. Andreescu has the reserves of determination and zeal to do it.
2019 record: 39-11, three titles including Australian Open
WTA ranking: No. 3
Best WTA Finals finish: 0-3 in first appearance last year
The word “roller-coaster” has never been more than a few keystrokes from Osaka’s name this year. Most recently, she’s been chug-chug-chugging to another high point, fired up by a freely expressed desire to “dominate” her peers.
The pressure and distractions that kicked in after Osaka reached the top ranking in February threw her for a loop. She didn’t win three successive matches at an event until the Madrid combined event, and fought thumb and knee injuries through the summer. After her fourth-round US Open loss to Bencic, an unhappy Osaka admitted, “I know there was a part of me that held back. And for me, it’s just hard to unlock that part.”
The Asian swing provided the key to the lock. Osaka is unbeaten in two events since the US Open, winning in Osaka, Japan, and Beijing. Despite her midyear struggles, Osaka has lost only one match (to Williams) in six outings against top-10 opponents. The roller-coaster might be turning into a bullet train hurtling to a final stop at “Domination.”