Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday
Andre Snellings gives his best bet for Monday night’s NBA slate including the Kings-Hornets game. (1:13)
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Totals With Spreads: We’ve got a pair of games on tonight’s slate with a total under 225 points and a spread less than five points, a spot that has been favorable for both favorites and overs thus far this season. Up to this point, we have 20 such instances … favorites are 12-6-2 ATS (15-5 outright) and in eight of those covers, the over has come through. In contrast, unders are 6-2 when the favorite fails to cover, making these games good targets for a Same Game Parlay… all you have to do is pick the right team to cover and the total is likely to follow!
Ice Trae: Much was made of the Hawks bringing in Dejounte Murray this offseason and how it would impact Trae Young‘s role. Yeah, he’s just fine. He has tied the NBA record with three straight games of 35-plus points, five-plus assists and no more than two turnovers (Michael Jordan in 1992-93 and Alex English in 1982). He is chasing history tonight against a long Raptors defense that profiles as the type that could give him problems … but he kept this streak going Saturday night against the league’s top defense (Milwaukee), on the road, on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Nothing But Nets: Yes, the Nets have lost four straight, but there is money to be made in the prop market on their stars. First of all, no team operates at a faster average pace than the Pacers and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency, so it’s a safe bet that Brooklyn is going to put points on the board. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving both have usage rates north of 31%. Betting scoring props for either has the green light, but let’s look a bit deeper. Myles Turner‘s status is TBD, though given that Indiana doesn’t play again until Friday, it’s seems at least possible that they rest him for another game. Following that thought, it’s worth noting that the last three times Kevin Durant has scored 30 points (his expectation for tonight), Irving has averaged eight rebounds. Counting on Irving collecting misses and initiating the break to get Durant in mismatches seems to be part of the plan and if the Pacers are without Turner, this becomes a bit easier. In a scoring environment, a Ben Simmons triple double bet is also live. He finished with a triple single on Saturday night against these Pacers, but the Nets took just 82 shots (their second lowest total of the season). I think that number trends closer to 100 than it does to 80 tonight and with that many more chances, Simmons to flirt with his first triple double of the year (+900) is worth a look.
Rousing Revival: The Hornets won’t have LaMelo Ball in the lineup against the Kings tonight due to an ankle injury that has sidelined him since the preseason. Terry Rozier is listed as doubtful due to an ankle ailment, which again affords Dennis Smith Jr. (58% available in ESPN leagues) a starting role as the team’s lead backcourt creator. Thriving in an important role for Charlotte, “DSJ” is a savvy play in both DFS and redraft competition against a Kings team that ranks 25th in defensive rating. After all, Smith just flirted with a triple-double in an overtime upset of the Warriors over the weekend. On the Kings side, Kevin Huerter (55% available) is taking nearly 50% more 3-pointers per game this season in Sacramento compared to his final season with Atlanta. With a total above 230 points for this contest, there should be some fantasy fun in this matchup.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets
7:10 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Kings (-2.5)
Money line: Kings (-150), Hornets (+126)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.5 points
BPI Win%: Kings (53.2%)
Doubtful: Terry Rozier (ankle)
Ruled Out: Cody Martin (quad), LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: This could be a night for a James Bouknight (available in 99.6% of leagues) sighting in deeper leagues. As mentioned above, Smith Jr. (available in 42% of leagues) is the better play, but the entire guard depth chart for the Hornets has an injury designation. Bouknight and Smith are the only non-two-way guards listed as likely to play tonight, so both could be in for big minutes. Bouknight had a scoreless klunker in his last outing, but scored in double digits with at least two made treys in the three games before despite only playing 20 MPG during that stretch. If that gets closer to 30 minutes on Monday, he could be in for a big night. — Snellings
Best bet: Kings -2.5. The Kings just got their first win on Saturday, but they shape up as a much more competitive team than their record indicates. The key is rookie Keegan Murray, who missed their first game of the season and came off the bench for the next two. With Murray in the lineup, the Kings’ offense clicks with a plus offensive threat in all five starting slots. In the last week, their losses were competitive matchups at Golden State and against the Grizzlies, and they defeated the Heat convincingly on Saturday. With the Hornets ailing due to injury, the Kings should be solid favorites on Monday. — Snellings
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards
7:10 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: 76ers (-4.5)
Money line: 76ers (-190), Wizards (+158)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.1 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (67.2%)
Questionable: Joel Embiid (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Wizards +4.0. On paper, the 76ers appear to be the better team and they have the rest advantage. But it’s difficult to ignore Philadelphia’s defensive problems. The 76ers rank 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions while the Wizards have scored 112 points per game this season while shooting 49.1% from the field. Washington’s defense has also improved from last season. They rank 10th in points allowed per 100 possessions. The 76ers are 5-14-1 against the spread in their last 20 road games and 2-5 ATS over their last seven games when playing on one day’s rest. I recommend taking Washington and the points, especially with Embiid questionable. — Eric Moody
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors
7:40 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Line: Raptors (-4)
Money line: Raptors (-180), Hawks (+152)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.4 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (52.9%)
Questionable: Fred VanVleet (back)
Ruled Out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Hawks +4. I’ve been a big advocate for the Raptors as an underrated team for more than a year now, and I’m glad to see them getting respect, but they shouldn’t be giving four points against a team like the Hawks. The Hawks have a better overall record (4-2) than the Raptors (3-3), and the Hawks also rank fourth overall in our Basketball Power Index (BPI), significantly above the Raptors. The BPI game predictor projects that the Raptors might win this matchup just over half the time (52.9%), but the predicted spread is less than a point…essentially a pick ’em. For Monday, I’ll pick the Hawks with the points. — Snellings
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
7:40 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-8.5)
Money line: Nets (-400), Pacers (+310)
Total: 236 points
BPI Projected Total: 242.4 points
BPI Win%: Nets (69.7%)
Questionable: Seth Curry (ankle), T.J. McConnell (knee), Aaron Nesmith (foot)
Ruled Out: Daniel Theis (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bennedict Mathurin (available in 36.5% of leagues) should be universally rostered as a potential full-time fantasy starter, not a streamer. Hopefully this is the last time I put his name in this space. Mathurin, like the rest of the players at the top of this rookie class, has stepped into the season like a 10-year vet. Mathurin has scored in double-digits in every game, with three games of 26 or more points in his first seven NBA games. This includes a career-high 32 points on Saturday, the last time he faced the Nets team he plays against tonight. — Snellings
Best bet: Royce O’Neal (available in 83.0% of leagues) continues to be a productive 3-and-D FBA producer, particularly in category leagues. O’Neal is averaging 2.3 3PG, 1.5 SPG and 1.0 BPG in addition to just under 10 PPG, 4 RPG and 3 APG. In a game like Monday’s, that projects to potentially lots of possessions and points, he could put a solid fantasy-production game on the board. — Snellings
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
8:10 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line: Bucks (-13)
Money line: Bucks (-900), Pistons (+600)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.7 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (86.8%)
Ruled Out: Jalen Duren (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 32.5 points. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points in four consecutive games, including 40 or more on two occasions. He has a usage rate of 36.6% without Khris Middleton so far this season. The Pistons rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions so Antetokounmpo should have no trouble dominating on Monday night — Moody
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
9:10 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Grizzlies (-3.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (-165), Jazz (+140)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.8 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (59.8%)
Questionable: Desmond Bane, Ja Morant (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jarred Vanderbilt (available in 67.3% of leagues) is a nightly double-double threat that also contributes almost two steals per game, and has been surprisingly active at setting up his teammates of late. In his last outing, against this same Grizzlies squad, Vanderbilt hit the triple-7s jackpot with 7 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists plus 2 steals and a 3-pointer in only 23 minutes of action. —Snellings
Houston Rockets at L.A. Clippers
10:40 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-9.5)
Money line: Clippers (-455), Rockets (+345)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.2 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (71.3%)
Questionable: Robert Covington, John Wall
Ruled Out: Kawhi Leonard (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Eric Moody breaks down his favorite three bets for the NBA’s loaded slate for Halloween night.
Best bet: Kevin Porter Jr. over 19.5 points. The Rockets are an abomination on defense ranking 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions played. Houston will need to score a ton of points to be competitive and Porter Jr. can help with that. He’s averaged 21.3 PPG in 34.6 MPG while shooting 42% from the field. — Eric Moody
1. Brooklyn Nets (124.1 points)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (122.1 points)
3. L.A. Clippers (120.8 points)
1. Detroit Pistons (109.6 points)
2. Washington Wizards (109.7 points)
3. Atlanta Hawks (112.3 points)
1. Milwaukee Bucks (86.8%)
2. L.A. Clippers (71.3%)
3. Brooklyn Nets (69.7)