Trend watch: Which players rise and fall?
Credit to Author: Sean Allen| Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2023 15:22:56 EST
Some teams only have seven games on the books, which isn’t a lot if you want to start talking trends. But every moment counts when it comes to fantasy hockey, so we can squeeze out some “trends,” relatively speaking, with the calendar ready to flip to November.
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Quickly: the Mann-Kendall statistical test is used to determine trends over time. It does this by examining the pattern of data points to determine upward or downward movement across a time series. But to functionally apply it to fantasy hockey, all we need to know is that it can tell us if a trend is present, if it’s significant and how significant it is.
Applying the Mann-Kendall test to ice time, shots and other categories across all box scores for the season identifies a few “trends” — across the seven to 10 games — we can pull out and highlight. Any of the trends identified below were deemed to be “significant” according to the Mann-Kendall test, but remember that “significant” in this context doesn’t consider the weight of the data, just the trend line.
Considering the true significance is what we can do as fantasy hockey managers.
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Dylan Strome‘s ice time (14:53, 14:16, 16:28, 16:09, 17:38, 21:12, 21:55, 21:00): As you can see from the box scores, the Caps coaching staff has recognized Strome’s value to the club’s scoring lines. He started the season in the bottom six, but has worked his way into a spot on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson. All six of his goals have come in the past five games. Strome’s power-play ice time is showing a similar trend (1:36, 1:15, 2:02, 3:27, 3:40, 4:30, 4:01, 5:02), so this looks very sustainable. His shooting percentage is in the stratosphere at the moment, but the assists will come in this role once Ovechkin starts finding twine.
Owen Tippett‘s fantasy points (0.2, 0.6, 0.5, 2.1, 0.9, 2.9, 2.7, 1.8, 2.7): It was a bit of a slow start for Tippett, but he’s settled in on a line with last year’s injury absentees: Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson. Both Tippett’s linemates are looking healthy and refreshed, and Tippett is benefitting. The points have started to flow and there is even still room for improvement: Tippett could push Bobby Brink for the fourth-forward role on the top power-play unit.
Connor Murphy‘s ice time (18:04, 19:49, 18:52, 21:11, 20:46, 22:18, 22:23, 25:33): A favorite in recent seasons for his epic counting statistics in blocked shots and hits (when healthy), Murphy’s minutes are creeping back into the territory we need them to be for him to be fantasy friendly. He’s one of the few players in the league who can get to a fantasy-relevant base on the back of his hits and blocks alone. Just don’t approach him if your league is still old school and uses plus/minus.
Tanner Jeannot‘s shots on goal (1, 0, 1, 0, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4): Another darling in the hits department in recent seasons, Jeannot has found himself buried on the Bolts depth chart since they paid through the nose for … er, acquired him from the Nashville Predators via trade. Admittedly, the shots on goal are modest, but Jeannot was a fantasy beast from the Preds bottom six at times when he married modest offense with his prodigious hits. It’s worth keeping an eye on him in deeper leagues already.
Luke Evangelista‘s ice time (12:01, 11:00, 12:28, 18:09, 12:36, 16:42, 17:41, 18:59): Seeing this trend for ice time is exciting for Evangelista. It helps that he’s already secured a coveted role on the top power-play unit, for which the Preds use two defense. That time on the advantage with Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg could also be a positive if the Predators hit a slump and decide to mix up the lines. The sky would be the limit if Evangelista can get access to O’Reilly and Forsberg at even strength, too. He’s currently holding down a five-on-five line with Tommy Novak and Kieffer Sherwood.
Jack Roslovic‘s ice time (9:31, 11:11, 12:33, 15:33, 19:31, 20:23, 19:51, 20:17): The forgotten Roslovic was left out of the Blue Jackets scoring line conversations in the preseason due to the arrival of fresh faces. Thanks mostly to the injury suffered by Patrik Laine (a far too common occurrence), Roslovic is back in the conversation as a top-six forward — even when/if Laine is healthy.
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Jonathan Huberdeau‘s ice time (18:31, 18:25, 17:43, 18:22, 18:09, 13:58, 17:24, 14:44, 16:01): We wanted to believe that the coaching change would make a difference. The early returns are scarier than most Halloween movies though. Perhaps the only optimism here is that the Flames are still tinkering their depth chart from game to game and there remains hope that a combination that works will be found. But Huberdeau is being paid like a forward that puts in 21 minutes a game and scores consistently, so this ice time trend is concerning.
Dylan Larkin‘s shots on goal (6, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 0): The shots were definitely inflated to start the season, but the downward trend is still noteworthy since Larkin came out of the gate so strong. There’s no reason to be overly concerned here though, as the connection with Alex DeBrincat is proving strong and should help Larkin push to match his career highs.
Seth Jarvis‘ power-play ice time (6:49, 3:52, 6:10, 6:49, 2:16, 5:08, 2:59, 1:13, 2:56, 0:54): At first blush, this is a bit concerning, especially because the Hurricanes are getting healthy bodies back like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. However, the Canes just haven’t been getting as many chances, as evidenced by the players’ collective power-play time on ice: 55:15, 40:00, 51:35, 47:10, 13:42, 47:45, 28:26, 10:00, 33:30, 4:45 (this is collective for all players, which is why the times are so high per game). The Canes clearly spent lifetimes on the advantage early in the season, which helped fuel Jarvis’ hot start. Even though he might feel like a sell-high candidate, he’s still locked in on the top advantage and alongside Aho at five-on-five.
Cale Makar‘s shots on goal (5, 5, 2, 0, 3, 1, 0, 0): Hey, Makar … shoot more, please. In all seriousness, nothing to worry about here, but I thought it worth including the fact that the Mann-Kendall test found Makar’s shots to be trending downward. There were some others like this I’m not including because it would be silly to be too worried, such as Auston Matthews‘ shots on goal ( 8, 5, 8, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4), too.
K’Andre Miller‘s power-play ice time (2:46, 1:00, 0:45, 1:19, 0:00, 0:13, 0:34, 0:24, 0:00): This is an interesting case. Miller had fantasy value written all over him coming into this season after breaking out late in 2022-23. But part of that logic was that he would secure the secondary power-play time. Erik Gustafsson stole that role pretty early in the season, however, as seen by his box scores: 0:29, 0:50, 1:12, 1:08, 0:33, 2:02, 0:38, 3:21, 0:51. That said, Miller is doing just fine without the power-play time, following the path to fantasy relevance epitomised by his defense partner Jacob Trouba: Pitch in some points, but throw those hits and block those shots.