Tulfo leads OCTA’s 2028 Senate preference survey; Duterte allies among top bets

MANILA — Sen. Raffy Tulfo led OCTA Research’s latest survey of preferred senatorial candidates for the 2028 elections, with several other familiar political names also ranking among respondents’ choices as the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte continue.

Tulfo received 47 percent in OCTA’s non-commissioned third-quarter survey conducted from September 20 to October 4, followed by Sen. Robin Padilla with 45 percent, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano with 44 percent, and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto with 42 percent.

OCTA Research president Ranjit Rye described the four as statistically tied, with their results falling within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The survey covered 1,200 adult respondents nationwide.

Sen. Loren Legarda registered 31 percent, while Makati City Mayor Abby Binay received 29 percent.

Former Sen. Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte were also among the names discussed in the survey.

Rye cautioned against treating the results as a forecast of the eventual election outcome, stressing that voter preferences could change before the May 2028 polls.

“It’s just a snapshot. These numbers will change,” he said.

Rye said name recall remains a major factor in senatorial preference surveys, particularly because voters are asked to identify as many as 12 candidates in a crowded field.

“It’s hard for everyday Filipinos to fill out 12, so I think this is how most Filipinos can fill up with five to eight names. But if you put out 12, they’ll just put in names that are familiar to them,” he said.

He cited candidates who remain recognizable to voters despite previous electoral losses, saying their continued presence in surveys reflects the influence of familiarity rather than a guarantee of electoral success.

But Rye said name recognition is only part of the equation. 

Candidates must also contend with campaign spending and local political machinery, particularly in the contest for the final seats in the 24-member Senate, where only 12 senators are elected nationwide every three years.

“Because at the end of the day, it’s really just 12 slots. And ang labanan is the 10 to 12. 10, 11, 12. Who is spending the most? Who has the command votes in the local government units?” he said.

Rye also pointed to the influence of political families and money in Philippine elections, raising concerns about how these factors affect electoral competition.

“Maybe that’s also partly a weakness of our electoral system where money is prominent. And money politics is the name of the game,” he added. 

Several candidates associated with the Duterte camp continue to draw support in parts of the country, particularly Central Visayas and Mindanao, Rye said.

Rye said a segment of the electorate remains firmly aligned with the Duterte family, suggesting that political loyalties and voters’ views of the country’s political divisions could continue to influence the 2028 race.

He also described the appeal of Duterte-aligned personalities in terms of a broader sense of resentment among some voters, rather than support for individual candidates alone.

“It’s not just about the personality. There’s politics of resentment,” Rye said.

The survey results, however, do not by themselves establish why individual respondents prefer particular candidates or whether those preferences will translate into votes in 2028.

Rye also discussed the possible impact of the impeachment proceedings against Duterte on public awareness of politicians involved in the process.

“Definitely. I think the impeachment has impact in terms of awareness,” he said.

The House of Representatives impeached Duterte in February 2025 over allegations that included misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth and threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady and then-House Speaker Martin Romualdez. 

The Senate’s handling of the case and the political positions taken by lawmakers have kept the proceedings in public discussion. 

Beyond candidate preferences, Rye warned that how the impeachment case is handled could influence public acceptance of its eventual outcome.

“Even if you come up with a decision whether to acquit or to convict, if the process is not clear and not seen as fair by our Kababayans, that outcome, whatever it is, to acquit or to convict, will always be problematic,” he said.

Rye said the survey underscored the need for voters to look beyond familiar names and assess candidates more closely, including their records, platforms and qualifications.

“We need to undertake a massive voter education program in the country because we need to remind people that power is in their hands,” he said.

“Democracies are built and sustained and defended by people. People make democracies work,” he added.