OCTA survey shows ‘narrowing’ gap between Duterte and Robredo’s 2028 presidential numbers
Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo led the presidential survey of public opinion pollster WR Numero released Friday. Bibo Nueva España, Senate PRIB & Arnold Almacen, Iloilo City Mayor’s OfficeMANILA — The gap of Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo’s scores in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup is “narrowing,” a recent survey from OCTA Research Group suggested.
OCTA’s third-quarter survey released Tuesday showed that the difference between the two politicians’ numbers was at 7 percentage points — Duterte had 40 percent voter preference while Robredo got 33 percent.
“This is the narrowest OCTA has recorded between the two,” the polling firm noted, adding that 26 percent of those surveyed were “undecided or choose neither candidate.”
It added that the gap had narrowed in each 2026 wave, from 11 percentage points in Q1 to 9 in Q2 and 7 in Q3.
The gap is also “well below” Duterte’s leads of roughly 20 to 25 percentage points in OCTA’s 2025 commissioned surveys, which were not publicly released, OCTA said.
It said that “the consistent direction across three waves is the key feature” of the recent survey release, noting nonetheless that Duterte is still leading nationally.
“The three-wave figures may suggest some softening in VP Duterte’s numbers and some growth in the uncommitted bloc; further waves would be needed to determine whether this reflects a sustained pattern,” it said.
OCTA also noted that Robredo’s national share stayed within a 33 percent to 35 percent range across the three waves, even as she has insisted she would not seek national office in 2028.
In February, Duterte announced her intention to run in the 2028 presidential elections.
“The narrowing of the gap therefore reflects lower figures for VP Duterte rather than gains for Mayor Robredo,” OCTA said.
It noted that Duterte’s Senate impeachment trial, which resumes November 9, was still unresolved during the survey’s fieldwork and that the presidential contest “remains an early and unsettled snapshot — not a prediction of the May 2028 outcome.”
The survey was conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026 and had a sample size of 1,200.