PSA: GDP only reached 6% in July-September
Credit to Author: Jordeene B. Lagare| Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2020 16:17:56 +0000
THE Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Wednesday revised downward the country’s economic growth figure in the third quarter of 2019, making it harder for the government to hit its growth target for the year.
In a report, the statistics agency said gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 6 percent in the period, lower than the 6.2 percent it announced last November.
The adjusted figure is still higher than the slower-than-expected 5.6-percent and 5.5-percent expansions in the first and second quarters, respectively.
“Major contributors to the revision were Other Services, from 5.1 percent to 4.2 percent; Construction, from 16.3 percent to 15.4 percent; and Transport, Storage and Communication, from 9.1 percent to 8.2 percent,” it added.
The agency said it revised the GDP estimate based on an approved revision policy that was consistent with international standard practices on national accounts revisions.
The report comes a day before the PSA will announce official fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 GDP data.
Responding to the report, ING Bank Manila senior economist Nicholas Antonio Mapa said “[t]he streak of years above 6 percent is currently seven, and 4Q GDP will need to crest 6.8 percent to pole-vault to a 6-percent finish and complete the tale of two halves.”
According to Mapa, the revised figure trims year-to-date economic growth to 5.7 percent. This, he said, dimmed “hopes for full-year growth to remain above 6 percent in 2019.”
The “continued sluggish growth momentum,” the economist added, would prompt the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to ease policy rates again in February, “with the ill effects of the aggressive 2018 tightening phase still being felt in 3Q 2019.”
Analysts polled by The Manila Times earlier said the Philippine economy likely grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter because of increased state and consumer spending, but warned that full-year growth might fall below the government’s growth goal range.
Their projected GDP growth figures in the October-to-December period ranged from 6.0 to 6.7 percent with a 6.4 percent average, higher than the 6.3-percent recorded in the quarter in 2018. For 2019, forecasts ranged between 5.8 and 6.0 percent with a 5.9 percent average, lower than the year-earlier’s 6.2 percent and missing the government’s lowered 6.0 to 6.5-percent target range.